Federal Budget Poll: Canadians think the budget will have a “generational impact” but there are risks for the Liberals
Key Findings
- 52% of Canadians who heard of the budget say it will have a “generational impact”
- Liberals lead Conservatives 42% to 36% in vote intentions
- 68% of Canadians want more redistribution
- 43% want an election before the end of 2026
Federal Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tabled the federal budget on Tuesday, November 4th. The government had set high expectations, suggesting that it would represent a new approach to government that would have a "generational” impact.
In a survey of 1,001 Canadians on November 5th-6th, 2025, we found that 52% of Canadians who had heard of the budget (56% had heard of it) thought it would have a “generational" impact.
The Liberals also have a healthy lead in vote intentions. They’re at 42%, six points ahead of the Conservatives, who are at 36%.
Table 1. Vote intentions among likely voters: The Liberals are six points ahead of the Conservatives| Party | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Liberals | 42% |
| Conservatives | 36% |
| NDP | 10% |
| Bloc Québécois | 6% |
| Green Party | 4% |
| Other | 1% |
| Net Favourability | |
|---|---|
| Liberals | +11.0 % pts |
| Conservatives | -0.3 % pts |
| NDP | -5.4 % pts |
| Bloc Québécois (Québec) | +10.9 % pts |
| Green Party | -12.7 % pts |
| Mark Carney | +16.4 % pts |
| Pierre Poilievre | -8.7 % pts |
Public support for redistribution: The Liberals may be vulnerable to the NDP
There are risks for the Liberals though. As Figure 1 shows, a large majority (68%) of Canadians want the federal government to redistribute more from the rich to the poor. Only 41% of Canadians think Carney supports more redistribution. That’s only eight points more than the percentage of Canadians who think Poilievre supports more redistribution.
Figure 1. Support for increased redistribution from the rich to the poor: respondents' positions and perceptions of the positions of Carney and Poilievre
This gap between public demand for redistribution and perceptions of Carney’s position creates a vulnerability on the Liberals’ left flank. Over a third (36%) of current Liberal voters also like or really like the NDP. If the New Democrats can find a strong leader, many current Liberal voters may shift their votes.
There is also a potential risk in the conflict over tariffs with the United States. Nearly as many Canadians (33.7%) hold Carney or his predecessor Justin Trudeau responsible for Canada not having reached an agreement with the United States to reduce tariffs as blame Donald Trump (34.7%) for the lack of an agreement.
Table 3. Politicians Canadians blame for the lack of agreement with the US to reduce tariffs. Nearly as many blame Carney or Trudeau as blame Trump.| Politician | Percentage blaming them |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 34.7% |
| Mark Carney | 19.4% |
| Justin Trudeau | 14.3% |
| Doug Ford | 8.1% |
| Pierre Poilievre | 4.3% |
| François Legault | 1.1% |
| Other | 0.3% |
| None of the above | 5.5% |
| Don’t know | 12.4% |
When we asked when the next federal election should be, 43% of Canadians said they wanted an election before the end of 2026. The current minority government may not last for long.
Table 4. Canadians’ preferences for timing of the next federal election: 43% want an election before the end of 2026| Election timing | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 12.9% |
| First half of 2026 | 17.2% |
| Second half of 2026 | 13.2% |
| 2027 | 8.1% |
| 2028 | 8.4% |
| 2029 | 15.0% |
| Don’t know | 25.2% |
Nevertheless, for now, Canadians want the Liberal government to survive. Pluralities of Canadians want the NDP and the Green Party to vote for the federal budget. Pluralities also want the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois to vote against the budget.
Table 5. Canadians’ preferences for how each opposition party should react to the budget: pluralities want the NDP and Greens to vote for it| Party | Vote for the budget | Vote against the budget | Abstain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 34.9% | 46.4% | 18.7% |
| NDP | 48.5% | 28.3% | 23.2% |
| Bloc Québécois | 33.5% | 38.3% | 28.3% |
| Green Party | 41.1% | 30.5% | 28.4% |
A “generational” budget that may be risky for the Liberals
Most Canadians agree with the Liberals that the budget will be consequential. The Liberals lead in vote intentions. The Liberal party and Mark Carney are also the most popular party and leader, respectively.
The risk for the Liberals though is that there’s a gap between Canadians’ desire for more redistribution from the rich to the poor and perceptions of Carney’s support for redistribution. This is especially challenging for the Liberals since a third of current Liberal supporters also like the NDP. If the New Democrats find a popular leader, Liberals who are disappointed by the lack redistribution under the Carney Liberals might defect to the NDP.