Canadians are only partly convinced that Poilievre is Canada’s Trump
Ever since Pierre Poilievre became leader of the Conservative Party, he has had to defend himself against accusations that he is Canada’s Donald Trump. Before the last election campaign even began, the Liberals launched an ad focused on the similarities in language between the two leaders. Canadians are only partly convinced.
I ran a survey of 1,001 Canadians from April 4th to 7th, 2025. I asked lots of questions about how Canadians perceive the leaders’ political preferences.
Canadians think Poilievre and Trump dislike each other
I asked whether respondents think Poilievre likes Trump or whether they think he dislikes the US President. More Canadians think Poilievre dislikes or really dislikes Trump (36%) than think he likes or really likes Trump (26%).
Figure 1: Canadians' perceptions of how Poilievre feels about Trump. More Canadians think Poilievre dislikes Trump than think he likes him.
I also asked whether respondents think Trump likes Poilievre or whether they think the US president dislikes the Conservative leader. More respondents think Trump dislikes or really dislikes Poilievre (38%) than think he likes or really likes him (22%).
Figure 2: Canadians' perceptions of how Trump Feels about Poilievre. More Canadians think Trump dislikes Poilievre than think he likes him.
Canadians think Poilievre supports Canada in disputes over trade and sovereignty
I then asked whether respondents think Poilievre agrees or disagrees with several political statements related to Canada-US relations. Almost three times more respondents think that Poilievre somewhat or strongly agrees (48%) than think he somewhat or strongly disagrees (17%) that Canada treats the US fairly when it comes to trade. Canadians think Poilievre rejects Trump’s claim that Canada is ripping the US off.
Figure 3: Canadians' perceptions of Poilievre's agreement that Canada treats the US fairly when it comes to trade. Almost three times more Canadians thinks he agrees than disagrees.
Canadians also think Poilievre supports Canada on tariffs. Twice as many respondents think Poilievre disagrees (44%) than think he agrees (24%) with the tariffs the US has imposed on Canada. Similarity, over three times more Canadians think Poilievre agrees (52%) than think he disagrees (16%) with retaliatory tariffs by Canada against the US.
Figure 4: Canadians' perceptions of Poilievre's agreement with US tariffs on Canada. Twice as many Canadians thinks Poilievre disagrees with US tariffs on Canada than think he agrees with them.
Figure 5: Canadians' perceptions of Poilievre's agreement with retaliatory tariffs on the US. Three times more Canadians think Poilievre agrees with retaliatory tariffs on the US than think he disagrees with them.
Canadians also think Poilievre supports Canadian sovereignty in the face of threats from Trump. Over five times more respondents think Poilievre disagrees (65%) than think he agrees (13%) with Canada becoming part of the United States.
Figure 6: Canadians' perceptions of Poilievre's agreement with annexation by the US. Five times more Canadians think he disagrees with annexation than think he agrees with it.
I then asked respondents how much they think Poilievre likes Canada on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means he really dislikes Canada and 10 that he really likes Canada. The median response was a 8. That was the same median placement Canadians gave for themselves and for Liberal leader Mark Carney (as well as his predecessor Justin Trudeau). Canadians thus aren’t convinced that Poilievre doesn’t like his own country or that he doesn’t support policies to protect Canada from Trump’s threats.
Ideology is a bigger challenge for Poilievre
The picture changes when we focus on political ideology. On the conventional ideological dimension from left to right, Canadians can barely tell Poilievre and Trump apart. I asked Canadians where they would place the leaders on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means far left and 10 means far right. The median placement of Poilievre by Canadians is 8 and their median placement of Trump is 9.
Figure 7: Canadians think Poilievre is almost as far right as Trump. Canadians place Carney close to the centre, which is where they are.
Canadians’ placement of Poilievre on the ideological dimension is a problem for him and the Conservative Party. Canadians' median placement of themselves is right in the centre, at 5. They perceive Carney to be at 4 on the scale. Canadians thus believe that Poilievre is three times as far from them as Carney is.
Poilievre's perceived distance from Canadians, and proximity to Donald Trump, was less of a problem when Justin Trudeau was Liberal leader. Canadians placed him at 3. When Poilievre faced Trudeau, Trudeau was two points away from Canadians, which is only one point less than Poilievre. The moderation Canadians perceive in Carney highlights the greater ideological distance they see in Poilievre.
The path forward: managing the comparison to Trump
Ever since he was elected leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre has had to defend himself from critics who suggest that he is just like Donald Trump. On most dimensions, Canadians disagree that Poilievre is Canada’s Donald Trump. They believe Trump and Poilievre dislike each other and they think Poilievre likes Canada and that he supports policies to protect Canada’s economy and its sovereignty.
Poilievre is much more vulnerable on ideology though. The right-wing position voters think he shares with Trump may be one of the reasons Poilievre has not been as succesful against Carney as he was against Trudeau. Any similarity to Trump may be a liability as long as threats from Donald Trump loom over Canadian politics.